Leroy N. Soetoro
2024-11-03 22:23:16 UTC
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Kamala Harris isnt just on track to lose the election; she could lose the
popular vote too.
Two self-reinforcing voter trends are conspiring against Harris. One is
that Republican mail-in ballots could further strengthen the Trump surge
that has closed the last two presidential elections, allowing him to
outperform his polling. The other is that, as it becomes increasingly
clear Harris cant win, her untested supporters dont turn out to vote.
Together, these trends could make reality what seemed unthinkable just
weeks ago.
No Republican presidential candidate has won the popular vote since 2004.
The reason is that Democratic candidates can rack up huge vote margins in
California and New York. In each of the last two elections, these margins
have been worth about 4.4 percent of the popular vote.
Harris will probably benefit from big margins in both states again after
all, she is from California. But if current polling is accurate, even
these may be insufficient to offset what is happening elsewhere. Yet bad
as things look now, if two potential trends combine, things could get much
worse for Harris.
The first trend is the impact of Republicans early voting especially
mail-in voting. In 2020, Trump made a major mistake by discouraging mail-
in ballots. With Democrats using the mail and Republicans doing so far
less, Republicans undoubtedly harnessed less of their own voters support
than they could have otherwise.
Leaving votes on the table was undoubtedly costly. Trump lost Arizona,
Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin (whose 43 electoral votes would have
flipped the election) by less than 77,000 votes combined.
This election, Republicans have embraced mail-in voting and, as a result,
it is already one of the biggest deltas between 2024 and 2020. Already
faring significantly better in the polls than he did at the same point in
2020 and 2016, Trump will assuredly reap more of that higher support as a
result. Higher support and realizing a higher percentage of it would
amount to a substantial two-fer for Trump in the end.
The second trend is the possibility that as Harriss lead in the polls
vanishes, so, also, do a significant number of her unproven supporters.
Long gone is Harriss early lead. According to RealClearPolitics average
of national polling, she just fell behind Trump on Oct. 26 for the first
time since early August. The RealClearPolitics average of battleground
state polling also has her at a slight disadvantage, she trails in five of
the seven individual swing states that will decide the presidency.
On Thursday, Trumps lead in both the national and battleground averages
was slightly higher. If all the polling averages translated into voting
outcomes, she would lose the electoral college vote, 241-297. She entered
this weekend needing to make up ground.
This polling pressure has put the Harris campaign into a position where it
must take risks it had sought to avoid. Most notable was the decision to
give in and have her do far more interviews than she had been doing early
on. Even being charitable, these have not gone well. Harris has lived
down to her long history of past poor media performances. Another has been
her increasingly strident language comparing Trump with Hitler and
calling him a fascist.
These and other questionable actions evince a sense of panic in the Harris
camp. They also give an impression of increasingly possible defeat. That
sense is not limited to just outsiders; it inevitably begins to seep in
internally too. A real threat now exists that Harris supporters, sensing
impending defeat, could fail to turn out.
While this can potentially happen to any candidate, Harris is particularly
susceptible. She has only run nationally once, and then not in her own
right. Aside from being Joe Bidens running mate in 2020, Harris has never
won a single vote outside of California. As a result, her supporters
loyalty is uncertain compared to that of Trump, who has run nationally
five times in primaries and general elections in both 2016 and 2020 and
in primaries again this year.
The upshot is that Harris is not simply seeing a lower level of support
than Biden and Clinton this late in their respective campaigns, but that
she could wind up reaping a lower percentage of that lower level of
support, too.
Several trends are appearing late in this race, all of them currently
running against Harris. Should they combine, it could unleash a perfect
storm for Democrats.
Harris may not simply lose in 2024. She could potentially lose the popular
vote as well and take many Democrats down with her.
--
We live in a time where intelligent people are being silenced so that
stupid people won't be offended.
Durham Report: The FBI has an integrity problem. It has none.
No collusion - Special Counsel Robert Swan Mueller III, March 2019.
Officially made Nancy Pelosi a two-time impeachment loser.
Thank you for cleaning up the disaster of the 2008-2017 Obama / Biden
fiasco, President Trump.
Under Barack Obama's leadership, the United States of America became the
The World According To Garp. Obama sold out heterosexuals for Hollywood
queer liberal democrat donors.
President Trump boosted the economy, reduced illegal invasions, appointed
dozens of judges and three SCOTUS justices.